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October 22, 2008

The CW Fall Report Card 2008

Gazelle Rank: #5 season to date - 1.1 rating / 2.4 million / median age: 33

How does that compare to last year? Down 8% in the adult demo (likewise among its 18-34 target) which isn't bad compared to some, but the CW is in a more precarious position and needs to grow.

Killer show: “Gossip Girl.” Sure, “America's Next Top Model” is higher rated. But Tyra's audience is getting less fierce with every cycle while the “Gossip” army has grown.

Soft spot: Friday-Sunday. It's always worrisome when the answer to “soft spot” includes a hyphen. Saturday has never been in play. The network gave Sunday nights to MRC (and, like a  teen given the keys to dad's car, MRC promptly crashed the night), and the CW surrendered its competitive “Friday Night Smackdown” to MyNetwork. So that’s three nights in a row when viewers are essentially not watching the CW. It's one thing to have a pothole in the road of your schedule, another to have a collapsed bridge.

Stealth strength: "One Tree Hill." Jumping a few years into the future last season and taking its cast of small town kids with big dreams and giving them successful and glamorous lives is paying ratings dividends, especially now that the show is paired with "Gossip."

Freshman update: The CW launched early this fall, but that means the network has to run more repeats, which tend to bust the ratings momentum for soaps. "Privileged" dropped after its encore. "90210" started strong, then softened to traditional CW-levels, next week we'll see if it drops post-repeat too.

Analysis: The network has maxed out on teen soaps (clone “Gossip Girl”!) and, coming soon, fashion-y reality shows (clone “Top Model”!). Now it's trying to clone “Smallville's” success with the Robin-from-Batman spinoff “The Graysons.” It's not a bad idea to tap the superhero genre again, but it would be nifty to see the CW find something fresh that still targets its demo.

Burning questions: There's only one. With “Gossip," the network proved it can grow a show. But can it grow a network?

If this network were an animal, what would it be? A gazelle. The CW is packed with waif-model starlets, lithe and graceful. But in any given time period, the network is eaten by bigger predators.

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