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October 12, 2009

Premiere week DVR results: 'Dollhouse,' 'Smallville' top gain list

Eliza Dusku, lighting technician Premiere week DVR data is here and the results show that Fox's "Dollhouse" gained a higher percentage of additional viewers than nearly any other show.

The "Dollhouse" premiere rating jumped a stunning 50% when seven-day viewing is added.

Granted, the "Dollhouse" base was extremely low -- the show went from a 1.0 rating to a 1.5. Many other shows during premiere week obviously gained far more than a half a rating point. But executives often compare how much a show gained relative to its initial live-plus-same-day number, and to boost your rating by 50% is huge (by comparison, last season's "Dollhouse" premiere gain was 30%).

The CW's "Smallville," which also airs Friday nights, likewise gained 50%, tying "Dollhouse" for the biggest percentage gain.  

"Dollhouse" has been doing pretty dreadful, but this news coupled with Friday's modest ratings increase will likely give some hope to Joss Whedon fans ... the question is whether either will impact the show's fate.

The program with the largest overall rating increase based on raw gains -- not a percentage compared to its original number -- during premiere week was ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" (which boosted its adult demo number from 6.7 to 8.2) followed by another Fox drama, "House" (6.8 to 8.2). Other top climbers based on sheer gains include "The Office" (3.9 to 4.9) and "The Mentalist" (3.6 to 4.6).

"All viewing matters," says John Rash, senior vp at media agency Campbell Mithun of the gains. "The numbers particularly matter for relatively low-rated shows like 'Dollhouse' and 'Smallville' which have an established fan base -- albeit one that time shifts -- which may give a show longer life if this data wasn't accounted for."

Shifting back to percentage increases, after "Dollhouse" and "Smallville," the next-biggest DVR gainer is the CW's "90210," climbing 40%.

Fox's "Fringe" is next on the list, up 39% -- no surprise considering its tough new Thursday time period.

Then "Melrose Place" (+38%) and "Gossip Girl" (+36%). Again, not a surprise, since the CW often post high percentage gains thanks to its low base and young DVR-savvy audience.

Another Friday night show, NBC's "Law & Order" is next (+33%), followed by NBC's "Heroes" (+32%). 

Few more in the top spots: Fox's "Bones" (+29%), CBS' "The Mentalist" (+28%), CBS' "Numbers" (+28%), ABC's "Castle" (+26%), Fox's "Glee" (+26%) and NBC's "The Office" (+26%).

Overall, broadcast shows gained an average of 14% for premiere week, compared to 9% last year. The CW gained the most (30%), followed by Fox (19%), CBS (13%), ABC (12%) and NBC (7%).

So let's skip down to the bottom of the list and see who's gaining the least.

Among what's interesting down here is that Fox's "Dollhouse" lead-in, the new comedy "Brothers," was one of the least time-shifted shows -- gaining, well, when rounded it's 0%. Which proves that just because a scripted show is on Fridays doesn't mean people will necessarily check it out later and makes "Dollhouse" look more heroic for climbing 50% right afterward. 

"Joss Whedon has a huge cult following and his cult isn't around on Friday night," said Shari Anne Brill, vp and director of programming at Carat. "You put this show on Fridays, they're not going to be watching it live. The DVR is bringing in devoted viewers who wouldn't otherwise see the show."

NBC's "The Jay Leno Show" occupied many of the lower spots, generally gaining about a tenth of a rating point (or 5%). This was expected, and one of NBC's selling points of Leno's show ("DVR-proof").

"God didn't invent news to be time-shifted, nor Jay Leno," said NBC's research guru Alan Wurtzel.

CBS' "Cold Case" (+5%) and freshman sitcom "Accidentally on Purpose" (+6%) don't seem to be on many viewers season pass list. 

Neither are Fox's Sunday animated comedies -- which is surprising. Especially with many guys watching "Sunday Night Football," you would think shows like "Cleveland" and "American Dad" would climb more than 8%.

Viewers seem to be watching popular new shows "NCIS: Los Angeles" (11%) and ABC's "Cougar Town" (11%) either live or not at all.

"A time-sifted show signifies engagement with the content, because they've taken that extra step," added Brill. "A lack of time-shifting suggests, 'If i miss it, oh well.'"

Summing up: In addition to "Dollhouse," some other shows of note here are NBC's "Heroes" -- its live-plus-seven 3.7 rating is a very different story than its previous 2.7 for this show. Same with ABC's "Castle" -- the difference between a 2.3 and 2.9 is pretty significant in the eyes of a network. The numbers also heavily suggest Fox's Thursday lineup of "Bones" and "Fringe" are really drawing the short straw in terms of live viewing on the intensely competitive night.

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UPDATE: Fox says they will air all 13 "Dollhouse" season two episodes. Joss Whedon says 13th episode will give some sense of closure...

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