Oscar ratings: rebound or lowest ever?
The Oscars are probably not going to suffer another massive ratings crash.
Despite all the gloomy predictions this year, 2008 remains tough to beat on the depression meter: "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "Juno," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" were the bedsheet-noose best picture nominees. Jon Stewart was the host (he's well-liked by fans but has a Comedy Central-sized draw).
The resulting telecast was The Lowest-Rated Ever with 32 million viewers and a 10.7 rating in adults 18-49, down a steep 24% from 2007 and 14% below the previous low of 2003 (12.5).
This year, there's “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," “Frost/Nixon," “Milk," “The Reader" and “Slumdog Millionaire" in the best picture slots with ho-hum Hugh Jackman as host. Plus there's the Heath Ledger factor, which is bound to add some "Dark Knight" fanboys even if some of their brethren are vowing to boycott. This lineup seems to have a quicker pulse by the slimmest of margins than last year (even if nearly all of that is due to seemingly pre-ordained wins for "Slumdog" and Ledger as well as some genuine suspense about Kate Winslet).
Remember, too, that the writers strike had just ended less than a couple weeks before last year's telecast. The walkout had prevented a Golden Globes ceremony in January to ramp up awards-season audiences. Hollywood was straining to get the message to viewers that the Academy Awards would be back in full swing. Broadcaster ABC, with several of its top shows in repeats, didn't yet have a chance to get its strike-impacted audience levels back to normality.
The result: ABC has been able to promote its Oscar telecast during highly rated episodes of shows like "Grey's Anatomy" and "Private Practice" this past week, while the Academy Awards publicity machine has been in full swing for weeks rather than having to perform a last-minute kick-start.
Sadly, even with all these factors in Oscar's favor, everybody is predicting the awards will go down in the ratings. It's tough to bet against momentum, and the momentum in broadcast is decline. If everything from "American Idol" to "Lost" is down this year despite maintaining their quality, why should Oscar be the exception while touting "Benjamin Button"?
The bottom line: If "Dark Knight" were nominated for best picture, the ceremony would have seen a major increase over last year. As is, I would be unsurprised if ABC's ratings came in tomorrow morning and stunned naysayers (and every other prediction report I've seen so far) by climbing, simply due to last year's writers strike hangover and a not-quite-as-bad-as-2008 lineup ... and equally unsurprised if they fell by, say, less than 10% (yes, resulting in another "Lowest-Rated Ever!"). Either way, fairly on par. Nothing too exciting, nothing too dramatic -- just like many of the nominees.
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As always, full Academy Awards coverage at THR.com
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