NBC: Hedging bets with Jay Leno

This morning's press conference (full coverage here) was a joyless scene. NBC employees and reporters, mutually shell-shocked from layoffs and advertising revenue worries; antagonists by original design, now comrades in a downsizing economy.

Ben Silverman, Marc Graboff and Jay Leno on a stage together, none seeming entirely comfortable with the other -- three very different people.

In June, while talking to a well-placed late-night source about Jay Leno’s options, the person predicted Leno would stay with NBC and gave some insight into NBC's thought process that would make it happen. Remember, at the time, all the headlines insisted Leno would exit unless NBC broke its agreement with Conan O'Brien, so this really went against the grain. With Leno staying, it's interesting to consider the rest of the person's prediction:

“NBC has committed to Conan for ‘The Tonight Show’ and will go through with it. It’s less of a financial decision, because the $40-45 million penalty payment is not super relevant. If they went to Jay and said, ‘we need you to split the payment,’ he’d do it. They’ve made a public commitment to Conan and don’t want to get beaten up over it. NBC will do everything to try to keep Jay. Morning shows, afternoon shows, daytime shows – he won’t take any of those. They will try to keep Jay in the fold so if Conan fails on ‘The Tonight Show’ they will put Jay right back in there. Jeff Zucker will call Jay into his office with big wink and say, 'if you say it publicly I’ll deny it, but if Conan fails, I want you back.' That’s just the way NBC works. Back when Dave and Jay were fighting over 'The Tonight Show,’ they tried to see if they could do the same thing. That’s what they’re going to try and do here with Jay and Conan, only they are more likely to pull it off this time. One of the most important things to remember about NBC, is they had Coke with Carson. There was no Pepsi. They gave birth to Dave, then they suddenly had a cola war. They cannot bear the idea of Conan or Jay going across the street."

NBC vehemently denied this line of thinking at the time (is there anything NBC does not vehemently deny?), and surely they would again today. The move to strip Leno at 10 p.m. certainly makes sense for more reasons now than last summer, given the number of holes opening on the schedule and the network's failure to launch new 10 p.m. dramas.

Still, keeping Leno still provides an unmentionable safeguard should O'Brien not draw large enough ratings for "The Tonight Show" (with "large enough" being an ever-shrinking value). If NBC was confident that its original succession plan of O'Brien/Jimmy Fallon would maintain the network's late-night dominance against a freelance Leno, taking this extraordinary step would have seemed far more shocking. Leno's landmark shift of 10 p.m. to Leno could eventually represent a good ol' college try, a fair effort, especially if NBC manages to produce some primetime hits that make its entertainment department hungry for hours again. It’s also tough to imagine NBC having four nighttime talk shows for years to come.

Not much else to add here that hasn't already been said by others. The move reflects NBC's current penchant for supersizing. More/longer "Office," "Biggest Loser," "Apprentice” and, now, late-night talk shows. Whatever is working, stretch. But try as NBC executives might to convince us, their network isn’t broken. NBC Nightly News is the top-rated newscast. The "Today" show is the most-watched morning show. NBC's talk shows dominate late night. "Saturday Night Live" is doing great this season. NBC Sports often dominates Sunday night and certainly scored with its Olympics coverage.

Nor is the broadcast scripted model broken -- not with CBS' new series "The Mentalist" ranking as last week’s most-watched scripted show, the first time any freshman series has pulled that off since 2005.

So let's be clear. What is not working, is NBC's entertainment programming.

If "The Mentalist" and "Fringe" were on NBC this fall instead of "My Own Worst Enemy" and "Crusoe," would NBC still have made this move? Based on the source above, possibly. But then it would certainly be more of temporary trial than a potential long-term solution.

One more thought: there’s something queasily insidious about all this happening the same day as the NBC Universal layoffs. Zucker says the network might cut back hours, causing alarm and headlines Monday morning. NBCU starts firing employees, causing alarm and headlines. Suddenly Leno’s deal is now done. Look everybody, something shiny. A back-of-pocket trump card played on the day it was most needed.

Below: O'Brien and Leno's monologue comments to their respective talk-show audiences, plus video.

NEW YORK, NY - December 9, 2008 -- Below are comments made by Conan O'Brien on the recent announcement that Jay Leno will stay at NBC.

After the monologue, Conan teased," When we come back, we're going to talk about something in the news that affects me personally."

After returning from the first commercial break, O'Brien said: "I have to talk about something that's happening in my life.  I woke up this morning and I saw something on the front page of the paper that absolutely shocked me.  I was stunned and I have to say I didn't see this coming and I just had to share it with you for a second.  Check it out ladies and gentlemen – today's New York Post (he holds up the paper and the camera zooms in past the NY Post's front-page Jay Leno headline to the weather).  It says here showers and 51 degrees.  51 degrees in December?!?  It was 20 degrees yesterday, that's crazy!  Check this out -- Daily News  (again the camera zooms in past the Leno headline to the weather) 49 degrees?  Well which is it? 49 or 51?  Let's get our stories straight here, people! This is insanity!"

"Let's talk about this on a serious note for just one moment, I've had many people calling me today saying, "What is all this? "What's happening?"  Jay Leno is going to be going in at 10:00 on NBC.  I wanted to make something very clear here on the show this evening.  I've known about this for a while.  I've talked a lot about this with Jay.  I am thrilled.  I am absolutely thrilled that Jay is staying at NBC.  He has been my lead-in on this program for 16 seasons.  He is a fantastic lead-in.  He is a huge part of my success.  I am indebted to Jay Leno.  And I love the idea that that relationship is going to continue.  He is going to be my lead-in continuing, I hope, for a long, long time.  So congratulations to Jay Leno. (APPLAUSE)  This is a happy ending.  It's very nice.  We're thrilled for him and we're thrilled for everybody at the Tonight Show.  Also I've talked it over with my producer and that means I can keep doing my Jay Leno impression."

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        'THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO' TRANSCRIPT


        December 12, 2009


        Below please find the transcript of Jay's comments regarding today's announcement of his new 10:00 pm primetime show.

(During Monologue)

JAY LENO:  Thank you very much.  Welcome to "The Tonight Show."  Nice to have you.  Excuse me a second.  Before we get started, I wanted to tell the stagehands something.  Hey, guys?  Guys, leave those boxes.  I'm not going anywhere.  You know, we're staying.  You know, we're staying.

(Applause.)

As a matter of fact, we're going to be on [that first part was garbled] at 10:00 p.m.  Well, you know, it's interesting.  A lot of people were shocked when they heard.  Not that I was moving to prime time, but that NBC still had a prime time.

(Laughter.)

We're going to be -- well, thank you.  Thank you.  We're going to be doing a new show in the fall.  We'll start at 10:00 p.m. right after the last hour of "The Today Show."

(Laughter.)

See, the way they're gonna reschedule, it's going to be all talk.  Oh, man.  Well, as you may have heard, there were rumblings that I was leaving NBC and going to ABC.  Let me tell you something.  Those were nothing but rumors started by a disgruntled employee: me.

(Laughter.)

Another thing, and I say this quite seriously, you know, I didn't know I was going to stay with NBC, but remembered something my parents always told me.  They said, "Whatever you do in life, always try to come in fourth."  And that's really --

(Laughter.)

And that's where NBC is.  We've been in fourth place for so long, by golly, we want to stay there.  I'll tell you how sneaky show business is.  Do you know what CBS announced today?  Did you year about this?  They're moving "Letterman" to 9:59.  I couldn't believe it.  Couldn't believe it.  You know, I had a lot of options.  I considered going back to my first love, the theater.  You know, the theater is my first love.

KEVIN EUBANKS:  Oh, wow, what a loss.

JAY LENO:  As you may know, I had a very successful run on Broadway earlier this year.

KEVIN EUBANKS:  You did?

JAY LENO:  Yes, I did.  Show my clip from Broadway.  I was quite proud of the work I did there.

(Clip shown.)

(Applause.)

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(Comments during second commercial rejoin)

JAY LENO:  I should explain what went on today.  We made a deal to stay on here at NBC.  I'm very excited about that.

(Applause.)

We're going to go -- we're going to do a show at ten o'clock.  It won't be "The Tonight Show."  "The Tonight Show" will be Conan's.  It will be similar.  I'll be 20 pounds lighter.  Kevin will have hair.  It's going to be a little different, but we're going to be primetime.  We've got to clean it up a little.

KEVIN EUBANKS:  That sounds good.  If it's going to give me hair --

JAY LENO:  It will give you hair.

KEVIN EUBANKS:  -- I'm there.

JAY LENO:  And we thought it would be interesting.  This is kind of new, uncharted territory.  Nobody's done a show similar to this at ten o'clock.  People say -- I asked NBC, "Do some research."  And they said, "Yeah, people would like to see something like this earlier."  We're going to try it.  If it. For the last 17 years, it's been a privilege to say, "Please stay tuned for Conan."  And I'm glad I'll be able to do that again because people think, you know --

(Applause.)

Conan is a great guy.  Conan will do a wonderful job on "The Tonight Show" as well.  And I think it will be fun to say, "Stay tuned for Conan coming up right after the news."

Comments

[matt]

Conan was right about the weather by the way...it was so very much warmer then it had been just even yesterday---i felt a little ridiculous in my hat and overcoat.

Oh yeah and of course Conan is gonna be the good trooper and say that's he happy about it. He's got a pretty solid contract with nbc for The Tonight Show...and i suspect he knows that Leno being at 10 o clock five nights a week can't be a viable long term solution for NBC no matter what Zucker says.

But to play devil's advocate if Leno at 10 works out just great for NBC and goes for not just this coming season but the one after that as well---how long does Conan stay at NBC in Leno's shadow? Does he try to bolt to CBS when Letterman's contract is up? Will be interesting to find out---I doubt that'll happen tho because How Can Leno at 10 o clock five nights a week be an actual long term solution???? Seriously...if CBS (or even ABC) beats them soundly and consistently every night specifically at 10 o clock...you can bet Zucker will wonder if he should go back to programming programs instead. (or at least that's what he would think if he was a sane rational person) we'll see what happens. I reamin skeptical that this arrangement will last past spring 2010 tho but we'll see.

[Alena]

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[Captain Obvious]

Nobody's watching real shows on the networks anymore because they're unwatchable with the logos staying on the screen all the time, plus 18 minutes of commercials per hour (there used to be less than 10!) The logos will have to go, and commercial time will have to go back to under 10 minutes per hour if they ever want viewers to come back. When the analog stations shut off in February a lot of people (including me) aren't going to bother upgrading to digital either when there's nothing on to watch!